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Let's first see why odds in poker are so important before we start calculating them like crazy. In order to play winning poker you have to make profitable plays. A profitable play could be betting when you are ahead in the hand or not calling too much when you are behind and need to catch a card to make the winning hand you are on a draw.
In order to know whether you are paying too much for your draw there are two things to take into account: If the amount you have to pay in relation to the size of the pot is relatively smaller than the chance of you completing your draw then you can call profitably. If you call on a draw when the amount you have to pay in relation to the pot is relatively larger than the chance of completing your draw, then you are making an unprofitable call.
And as unprofitable calls are a mistake in poker, this is something you should be willing to avoid saves a lot of money in the long run. This basic rule is somewhat of a generalization as will become apparent later, but for now it will do just fine.
Note that you can't say that your pot odds have to be larger than your drawing odds as 'large pot odds' refers to a small amount to be paid in relation to the total size of the pot while 'large drawing odds' refers to just that: Pot odds are relatively easy to determine and can be expressed in percentages and in ratios.
Which of the two you use is just a matter of personal preference. Pot odds are the amount you have to call in relation to the total pot size. When expressing pot odds in ratios, the total pot size is any money in the pot from previous betting rounds plus the bets of your opponent s so far in the current betting round. When expressing pot odds in percentages you have to add your call to the total size of the pot. Table 1 summarizes the pot odds in ratios and percentages when facing some bet sizes expressed in pot size bets PSB's from your opponent that are very common in no limit hold'em.
If you want to calculate the odds of hitting your draw then you need to know how many cards left in the deck will make your draw; how many outs you have. A couple of tips when you try to count your number of outs correctly: Don't count the same outs double if you have multiple draws see example 2 below. Don't overestimate the number of outs you have. This one is very important and in part refers to reading the board see example 3 below.
You could count 1 or 2 outs extra if you have some backdoor draws needing 2 more cards to complete the draw. To not overestimate the number of outs it would be safer to just look at these draws as a bonus and not count any extra outs for them. When knowing the number of outs and the number of cards left in the deck you can calculate the chance of hitting one of your outs:. Of course you aren't going to calculate it that exactly in the heat of battle, instead you can use the following rule of thumb: Also take a look at memorize?
The odds of hitting your draw with one card to come on the turn are slightly different, because there will be one less unknown card left in the deck, just like calculated in the last example. One quick tip about how many cards you should use for estimating your odds: You will very likely be facing another bet on the turn. Therefore you have to look at the odds of hitting your draw with just one card to come.
Once you've determined the rough pot odds and odds of hitting your draw, than you can compare them to find out if calling on a draw would be profitable. We already know that: Regarding the example above: Another program called PokerStove makes it possible to calculate the chance of winning your equity in the hand versus a range of possible holdings.
PokerStove is free to download and it is highly recommended that you play around with some hand match ups on different board types to develop a sense of how the odds of winning might differ from the odds of hitting your draws. As long as you aren't calling an all-in with a draw than there is money left to be bet on later streets. The money that could possibly be won when you hit your draw besides what is already in the pot when making the call can make a play profitable that would appear to be a mistake when only considering the pot odds.
These extra odds are called implied odds. The concept of implied odds is very important to apply correctly as in many occasions pot odds alone won't justify a call. By disregarding implied odds you could often be folding in spots where calling would be very profitable instead.
By regarding and overestimating implied odds however, you could just as often be calling in unprofitable spots. There are several factors to consider when making an estimate of the implied odds:. Effective stack size This is the smallest stack of the players battling it out. The bigger the effective stacks, the higher the implied odds. How well concealed is your draw when it hits? A straight draw with one hole card and three cards to a straight on the board does not offer the implied odds of a straight draw for which you use two of your hole cards.
In the first case, mostly every opponent will become very cautious when you hit your straight and therefore your implied odds are low. Your opponent's tendencies Some players just can't let go of their holdings although all the obvious draws completed and you scream at them you've got it with a large raise. These players offer high implied odds. Conversely, weak players might let easily go of their hand after a draw completes and don't offer high implied odds.
Your own image If you are generally tight and only bet with very strong holdings your opponents might be aware of that and are less likely to pay you off when you hit your draw. This point will be less valid at the lower stakes where your opponents will generally stay unaware of a tight playing style. As you can see implied odds are impossible to determine exactly, because they depend on some variables you can only estimate.
Of the three factors mentioned, stack size will surely be the most important one to pay attention to at the micro stakes no limit games. Effective stack sizes can be determined exactly and they form the upper threshold of your implied odds. Your opponent's tendencies, your own image and the concealed nature of your draw determine how much lower than this threshold your implied odds will eventually be.
This is very important to realize in order to not structurally overestimate your implied odds. A very common mistake that a lot of people make at the micro stakes no limit hold'em games is incorrectly 'set mining' or 'set farming'. As most of the nano and micro stakes players are of the kind that doesn't let his or her hands go too easily it won't be the lack of attention to the opponent's tendencies that causes people to set mine without implied odds but rather the lack of attention to stack sizes.
A lot of people will buy in with a short stack that doesn't leave much money to be bet after the flop and hence doesn't offer any implied odds, neither for the short stacked player's opponents nor for the player in question himself. Because people don't let go of their hand in the micro stakes very easily, correct set mining will be very profitable and certainly should be part of a basic winning poker strategy.
So, let's take a closer look at some facts concerning set mining:. It is the little changes that will make the biggest changes. I truly love your website.. Did you develop this website yourself?
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Many of you have benefited from his generosity. Fred put up bounties in our game on a regular basis and also backed numerous players so they could enjoy the game he loved so much. There were several times Fred hung out with us in chat and played poker while in a hospital bed and yet you would have never known that he was dealing with cancer treatments. Many times Fred sent me me music to play for Y'all. I was always like a little kid when Fred would tell me there was a music package on the way and I would get a huge grin seeing what Fred chose to send for me to share with Y'all.
On a personal note, I'm going to miss Fred a lot. Fred could always calm me down when I got upset and would send me private messages telling me to let it go. I cannot say enough about how much Fred has meant to me and THR. THR would not be the place it is today without the support of this wonderful man. I would not be where I am today with out Fred's unwavering support.
I'll close this post with a simple statement for all of you. Show kindness to all and be be strong in the face of adversity. Fred has been a shining example of the goodness in all people and we should honor him by trying to follow his ideals. It is with a sad heart that we inform you of Trollmax's passing last Sunday. Trollmax was a long time friend to many at TexasHoldemRadio and he will truly be missed by us all.
Throughout his four-year battle with cancer, he always remained positive and strong. Gallaschun on February 9th , he had a love for poker and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Fred is survived by his wife of 34 years, Cynthia, his children, grandchildren, a brother, and other family members.