Just discovered the Kelly Criterion

They all behave differently in the short run, but in the long run you will give the house the same percentage of total money bet. You gotta do the cookin' by the book. The expected log of the bankroll after the bet is Remember that variance is the square of standard deviation, which is listed for many games in my Game Comparison Guide. Most shooters will 7 out after 4 rolls and it is less likely that they will throw a second 4 or 10 before a 7.

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Kelly Vs. Optimal Video Poker Strategy

Remember that variance is the square of standard deviation, which is listed for many games in my Game Comparison Guide. From my Game Comparison Guide, we see the standard deviation of blackjack is 1.

If the standard deviation is 1. The portion of bankroll to bet is 0. A casino in town is offering a 5X points promotion in video poker. So at 5X, the slot club pays 1. After the slot club points, the return is By the way, this exact promotion is going on at the Wynn as I write this, for September 2 and 3, The advantage is 0.

The optimal Kelly wager is 0. Following is the exact math of example 3. Let x be optimal Kelly bet, with a bankroll of 1 before the bet. The expected log of the bankroll after the bet is The math gets much messier when there is more than one possible outcome, such as in video poker. Nice strategy to milk the comp system. The American Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling has the following "anything but seven" combination of craps bets that shows a net win on any number except 7.

How is that possible if every individual bet made has a higher house edge? To confirm their math I made the following table, based on a field bet paying 3 to 1 on a So the house edge is indeed.

However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4. For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved or ignoring ties then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll including ties. I had to Google this to find out what this is. This appears to me to be an amusing urban legend about some young scientists who developed a winning craps system.

The story is told at Quatloos. I have a question about a series of bets in craps. The strategy is called the "Iron Cross. I read up on this, and found that this particular bet will pay on every roll that is not a 7.

I was told that this gives you the lowest house edge. What are all the various odds and what-nots to go along with it? This begs the question, why is this lower than the individual house edge of each bet made? The reason it seems that way is the result of comparing apples to oranges. The house edge of place bets is usually expressed as the expected loss per bet resolved.

Looking at the individual bets on a per-roll basis, the house edge on the 5 is 1. As the book states, it is a way of betting nothing on some rolls, reducing your expected loss on random shooters, while still getting the full comp value of table time. The way the 5-Count works is you start counting rolls as soon as a new shooter throws any point number.

When you get to five rolls after you start counting, the shooter is deemed worthy, and you start betting. Once a shooter has made a point, or thrown lots of point numbers, the other players will gain confidence in him, and start betting with him. So, this kind of strategy seems natural. However, sometimes they will dock your time, especially if you are betting big.

An alternative strategy is to wait until the shooter makes a point. Under this strategy you will only be betting Imagine a craps player who takes maximum odds, say 10x, on his pass line and come bets reducing the house edge to 0. He avoids other bets that give the house a bigger edge. He is an "astute" right bettor in every way except this: Is he doomed, in spite of his efforts to leave the table a loser every time, to only give the house roughly 0.

In other words, even if he tried to lose, he still only gives up 0. Over a shorter time, he probably could do this, but not over "years. However, a problem there is that a winning player will eventually reach the table maximum, which is rather low in craps.

It just goes to show how futile betting systems are. Wizard of Odds uses cookies, this enables us to provide you with a personalised experience. More Info Got It! Enter your email address below to subscribe to our weekly newsletter along with other special announcements from The Wizard of Odds! The Wizard of Odds. Craps - Betting Systems Have you ever heard of the craps pro?

Jim from Belluvue, US Although I have tested a lot of systems, I don't need to test all of them to know they are all worthless. Ted That is known as X odds, and is now pretty common. Ernie from Hernando Beach, Florida Unlike most gambling writers, I don't put much emphasis on betting strategies. Michael This is similar to a question I got last week.

Take all these chips and stack them in easy to manage stacks on top one another in sequential order starting with 1st bet to last. Carefully put chips in your pockets I personally wear baggy pants with huge pockets such as cargo types with regular and thigh pockets for ease of access I suggest you do the same 6a. If you do not stop this inner beast I promise you these are just a few of the things which will happen A.

Make you lose all sense of reality meaning: If you do not tame the fire before it becomes wild before it grows into an towering inferno: Taking a trip on your Harley to the dessert and plunging a metal straw into to the first peyote cactus you find and sucking it dry 2.

Eating a whole bag of psychedelic mushrooms in ten minutes or less in front of sober people 3. Smoking a brick of Afghanny weed as fast as it will burn 4.

Eating a sheet of acid instead of just eating 1 tab 5. This system is my gift to all who want to use it. If and when you decide to use it you have to follow my instruction word for word in exact form as if you had a magnum to your head safety off finger on the trigger and the psycho holding it has Parkinson's disease to top it off!!! This may sound funny to you but all funniness aside I'm serious as a heart attack Do not draw Attention any how way shape or form you Got it???

Now go make some quick cash at your nearest casino and thank me later boys I would wish you luck but the only luck I can wish you is not to get caught because this is the only luck you'll need I promise.

Pretty sure I witnessed someone playin this or something real similar this weekend. Pit boss was giving him the evil eye, then he bailed soon after he knew he was being watched. It's a conspiracy casino is rigged.

BTP Week 2 pts. Originally Posted by big joe Someone needs to try this in the sbr casino and report back.